Rapaport April 16 Weekly: RAPI Mixed as Fancy Shapes Widen Premium Over Rounds
The April 16 Rapaport Market Comment reports continued RAPI weakness in sub-1ct categories (-1.1% to -3.5% for March), with 2ct+ fancy shapes maintaining premium over rounds as buyers remain cautious and order-driven.
Executive Summary
Rapaport's April 16, 2026 weekly market comment confirms a bifurcated polished market: smaller goods remain under structural pressure while 2-carat-and-larger fancy shapes hold ground and, in some categories, command growing premiums. RAPI movements for March registered declines across all size categories — 0.30ct at -1.1%, 0.50ct at -3.5%, 1ct at -1.7%, and 3ct at -0.5% — though 0.30–0.89ct rounds stabilized from April 1 onward, suggesting the correction in smaller goods may be reaching a floor. Trading conditions remain order-driven. Buyers are purchasing for specific confirmed orders rather than building inventory positions, reflecting cautious credit conditions and uncertainty around the De Beers ownership process. Belgium's March trade data, published alongside the weekly comment, shows polished exports down 17% to $357M while rough imports rose 2.5% to $312M — a divergence that indicates Antwerp is absorbing rough cautiously while polished outflows slow. In fancy shapes, long ovals, marquises, and emeralds continue to outperform rounds in the 2ct+ segment. Long cushions are trading at a 20–25% premium over square cuts. Marquises remain the highest-priced fancy shape per carat. Princess cuts continue to show weakness. US demand for elongated fancy shapes in D–I, VS–SI grades remains the primary source of near-term buying activity.
Industry Impact
The stabilization of sub-1ct rounds from April 1 is a tentative positive signal, but it does not represent a price recovery — it signals a pause in the decline. For manufacturers and dealers carrying inventory in 0.30–0.89ct commercial goods, the immediate risk of further markdown has moderated, but realization remains below replacement cost for rough purchased before January 2026. The continued premium for 2ct+ fancy shapes creates a clear margin opportunity for manufacturers with the cutting capability and rough access to produce elongated outlines — oval, marquise, long radiant — in commercial-to-fine quality. Belgium's rough import uptick (+2.5%) is modest but directionally constructive, suggesting Antwerp-based manufacturers are beginning to cautiously rebuild cutting pipelines.
Next Steps
1. Review your 0.30–0.89ct polished inventory levels — the stabilization signal from April 1 suggests current pricing may represent a near-term floor; avoid forced liquidation at current levels if holding costs permit. 2. Prioritize production of long fancy shapes (oval, marquise, long radiant) in 2ct+ output planning — premium over rounds is at 20–25% and demand from US buyers is active. 3. Reassess pricing on princess cut goods — weakness in this category is structural, not cyclical; consider redirecting rough planning away from princess yield. 4. Review Belgium-origin polished sourcing ahead of Q2 — Antwerp's rough import uptick suggests increased cutting activity and potential polished availability in 4–6 weeks. 5. Monitor RAPI weekly through end of April to confirm whether sub-1ct stabilization holds into the pre-summer demand window.