Demand rotates into smaller stones while rough stays soft
Rough
De Beers' average selling price sits at $110/ct, still running about 37% below a year earlier on the Q2 comparison. That's a standing picture of a rough market that has repriced hard and stayed soft — not a move today, but the base case the midstream is planning against.
Polished
RAPI is split this month: the 1ct index is essentially flat (-0.11%) while 0.50ct goods are up +1.66%. Firmness is rotating into smaller stones, so inventory weighted to half-carat and melee is where the market is holding — larger goods still lack a demand pull.
Demand & macro
Gold has surged +10.48% over the month to $4,529.9/oz, strengthening the intrinsic-value case for jewelry while raising manufacturing cost. The dollar eased against the rupee (95.39, -0.32% wk) and shekel (2.9728, -0.40% wk) — a modest tailwind for dollar-priced buying in Mumbai and Ramat Gan — and India's polished exports at $847M ran +8.71% ahead of last June.
From the field
The Qatar Diamond Exchange has signed cooperation agreements with three Asian bourses. A newer Gulf hub plugging into mature Asian flow widens, over time, where mid-market goods can clear and settle — directional rather than immediate, but worth watching for new liquidity.
On the radar
The Jewellery Show London opens Sep 2 at Olympia, immediately ahead of Vicenzaoro September (Sep 4–8) — the season's first major fair and the desk's first real read on autumn buying sentiment.
Russia's mandatory 'synthetic' labeling for lab-grown diamonds takes effect September 1, 2026
From September 1, 2026, lab-grown stones set in precious-metal jewelry sold in Russia must be labeled "synthetic", with weight stated in grams rather than carats. The word "diamond" — along with terms like "precious", "natural" and "eco-friendly" — is reserved for natural stones only.
What to do: If you sell lab-grown goods into the Russian retail channel, relabel stock to comply before September 1. Otherwise, note the widening natural-vs-synthetic terminology split as a positioning signal; it does not change documentation for natural goods.
On August 26, 2026 OFAC issued Russia-related General License 104B, replacing GL 104A. U.S. imports of grandfathered non-industrial Russian-origin diamonds (1ct+ located outside Russia since Mar 1, 2024; 0.5ct+ since Sep 1, 2024) are now authorized through 12:01 a.m. EDT September 1, 2027 — not expiring September 1, 2026 as previously set.
What to do: Stand down on any rush to clear grandfathered Russian-origin stones into the U.S. before September 1 — the window now runs a full year longer. Keep filing the non-Russian self-certification on every 0.5ct+ entry and retain location/export-history evidence for CBP as before.
Russia delays 8% rough-diamond export duty and mandatory domestic-cutter rule to March 1, 2027
Russia's Finance Ministry postponed the 8% export duty on rough/semi-processed diamonds ≥0.45ct — and the rule requiring producers like Alrosa to offer goods to approved domestic cutters first — from Sept 1, 2026 to March 1, 2027, launching both alongside the new state cutting-cluster decree.
What to do: Non-G7 desks sourcing Russian-linked rough (India/UAE cutting): the Sept 1 duty cost you were budgeting is deferred six months — re-plan Q4 procurement around the new March 1, 2027 date. G7-facing desks: no change, Russian-origin rough stays barred.
RAPI July: first all-positive month since March 2025 — 1ct flat, ending a 13-month slide
Rapaport's July index (published Aug 4) rose across sizes — 0.30ct +1.6%, 0.50ct +1.8%, 3ct +0.2% — while 1ct held flat: the first flat-or-positive reading for all four categories since March 2025 and the end of a 13-month decline in 1ct.
What to do: Reprice inventory to the firming list before your next quotes and hold firm on 1ct — the long discount cycle has stalled; stop discounting smalls at last month's levels.
OFAC GL 104A expires September 1: window for grandfathered Russian-origin diamonds closes
The US authorization to import 'grandfathered' Russian-origin diamonds (located outside Russia before the March/September 2024 cutoffs) ends 12:01 a.m. EDT, September 1, 2026. After that, entry of such goods into the US is prohibited unless OFAC renews the license.
What to do: Inventory any grandfathered Russian-origin goods intended for the US market and ship before the deadline; verify country-of-mining documentation and self-certification for every US-bound parcel; brief US customers on the cutoff.
Rapaport RAPI 1ctRapaport index tracking the average asking price of 1-carat round polished diamonds on RapNet — the industry's core polished-price benchmark.1m
+0.43%
▲—
Rapaport RAPI 0.50ctRapaport index for half-carat round polished diamonds — a gauge of demand in the smaller, more commercial size range.1m
+2.54%
▲—
USD / INRUS dollar to Indian rupee rate. India polishes ~90% of the world's diamonds, so the rupee moves manufacturers' costs and margins.1w
95.39
▼-0.39%
GoldSpot gold price per troy ounce — the main raw-material cost for jewelry manufacturing and a barometer of safe-haven sentiment.1m
$4,529.90/oz
▲+10.5%
De Beers $/ctAverage price per carat of rough diamonds sold by De Beers in its sales cycles — a leading signal for rough supply pricing.Q2 26 YoY
$110/ct
▼-37.0%
India Polished ExportsMonthly value of polished diamond exports from India (GJEPC data) — a key gauge of global downstream demand.Jul 26 YoY