Deloitte Forecasts Growth in US Holiday Retail Spending

Executive Summary

Deloitte's annual US holiday retail forecast, covered by Rapaport, sets expectations for consumer spending across the November-to-January period. Relevant context for jewelers and suppliers shaping holiday inventory and promotional plans. See the source for the projected figures and the behavioural detail behind them.

Industry Impact

Macro holiday forecasts are blunt instruments for jewelers, but they set the weather that promotional calendars are built around. A projection of continued growth tends to embolden discounting and inventory builds across general retail, which indirectly shapes how much attention and wallet share discretionary jewelry can capture in the gifting weeks. The more useful signal usually sits in the composition, where value-seeking, online share, and average-transaction trends point, because those describe how, not just whether, consumers spend. For the diamond pipeline, a firm headline paired with a cautious per-transaction shopper argues for sharper assortment and financing offers rather than simply carrying more units.

Next Steps

1. Separate the forecast's growth headline from its spending-behaviour detail before acting on it.
2. Stress-test your holiday plan against a scenario where traffic rises but average tickets fall.
3. Prioritise assortment breadth at accessible price points over deep stock in a few lines.
4. Prepare financing or layaway offers that protect margin.
5. Schedule a mid-season checkpoint to adjust reorders against actual sell-through.