The Trade Finds Its Floor as Rough Resets and Small Goods Lead

After thirteen months of falling prices, the trade spent this week doing something it had not done in a long time: holding steady. The 1 ct index stopped falling, rough continued its reset toward levels where polished can clear, and demand re-sorted into the goods that still move.

None of this adds up to a broad recovery. But for the first time in more than a year, the market looked less like it was pausing on the way down and more like it was beginning to find a floor.

Polished Finds a Floor in Smaller Goods

The steadying is real, and it is selective. RAPI for 1 ct diamonds was essentially flat this month, down 0.11%, closing out thirteen straight months of decline and, according to Rapaport, marking the best stretch since before the U.S. tariff regime.

But the energy is one size down. The 0.50 ct index rose 1.66%, and India’s June polished exports climbed 8.71% year on year to $847 million. Buyers are active, but demand is concentrated in smaller, more affordable, more liquid stones. That is a demand pattern to plan around, not fight.

Inventory weighted toward 1 ct-plus goods is sitting in the flattest part of the curve. The turnover is happening below it.

Rough Completes Its Reset

The mirror image played out at the mine. De Beers’ realized price held at $110 per carat, down 37% year on year in Q2, after the miner eased book prices at its July sight. Before the adjustment, sub-1 ct goods had been running 20% to 30% above the secondary market.

This is the correction the midstream has been waiting for: rough repricing down toward polished reality rather than defending a premium that cutting margins could no longer carry.

A buyer’s market in rough, meeting a floor in polished, is the first coherent alignment the pipeline has offered in a long while.

Macro: Gold Sets the Tone

The week’s loudest number was not a diamond price. Gold rose roughly 15% on the month to nearly $4,700 per ounce as the dollar softened against key trade currencies, with USD/INR near 95.4, USD/ILS near 2.98, and EUR near 0.857.

The move cuts both ways. Higher gold prices lift finished-piece ticket values and support the intrinsic-value story for jewelry, but they also raise setting costs and can make consumers more cautious at the counter. A weaker dollar modestly cheapens USD-priced stones for Indian and Israeli importers.

For gold-set inventory, the pressure is on margin, not demand.

The Ownership Question Still Hanging Over 2027

Beneath the price stability sits an unresolved structural story. Anglo American has reportedly named the Gareth Penny-led Global Diamond Consortium as preferred bidder for its roughly 85% De Beers stake at about $1 billion, with closing targeted for Q4 pending government approvals. A resolved owner would reset sightholder strategy and rough allocation heading into 2027.

Around that, market infrastructure continued to shift. The Qatar Diamond Exchange signed cooperation agreements with three Asian bourses, quietly changing where goods may clear and where tenders may happen. Yoram Dvash also took the chair at Botswana’s Okavango Diamond Company, the independent rough seller that functions as a price-discovery counterweight to the sight system.

Governance, not only price, is being rewired.

The Week Ahead

• The Jewellery Show London, September 2-3: Opens the autumn fair season and provides the first live read on wholesale sentiment heading into Q4.
• Vicenzaoro September, September 4-8: Follows immediately, with the two European fairs setting the tone for Q4 restocking.
• 0.50 ct strength: Watch whether demand broadens back into 1 ct goods or remains concentrated in smaller stones.
• Anglo and Global Diamond Consortium: Track any movement on the sale timeline or government approvals.
• Gold near $4,700 per ounce: A further move higher would keep pressure on gold-set margins and consumer ticket sizes.