Supply Contracts. Demand Shifts. The Diamond Map Is Being Redrawn.

The week delivered a clear message: the global diamond pipeline is narrowing at both ends, with fewer mines producing, fewer hands authorized to buy, and a midstream recalibrating between gold momentum and polished uncertainty. For decision-makers, this looks less like a normal cyclical pause and more like a structural repositioning.

THE PULSE:

1. INDIA'S EXPORT DROP SIGNALS A MIDSTREAM RESET

The bottom line: If your supply chain runs through Surat, your Q2 delivery schedule may need immediate review.

India's March polished exports fell 69% year-over-year to $166 million after returns, while rough imports fell 45% to $720 million, the sharpest contraction in recent memory. This appears to be more than seasonal softness. It suggests a deliberate pullback by the world's primary cutting hub.

• Factory utilization in Surat is approaching multi-year lows.
• Liquidity conditions for midstream operators remain under pressure.
• Polished supply agreements for Q2 should be reassessed immediately.

The contrast: Indian domestic demand tells a different story. Titan reported 46% YoY jewelry sales growth in Q4, driven by gold and studded categories. Indian consumers are still buying, but that demand is not flowing through the export channel in the same way.

2. DE BEERS RESHAPES THE ROUGH MARKET

The bottom line: If you are one of the roughly 25 sightholders being cut, your sourcing model may need to be rebuilt before year-end.

De Beers is reducing its authorized sightholder roster from approximately 70 to 45–50 buyers, a one-third contraction. This concentrates rough allocation among fewer, larger players and raises the barrier for smaller or displaced buyers.

• Remaining sightholders may gain leverage, while displaced buyers will need to consider secondary tenders, auctions, other producer channels, or the open market.
• The move reinforces De Beers' shift toward margin discipline over volume.
• Secondary-market rough premiums may widen if displaced demand moves into alternative channels.

Simultaneously, Rio Tinto's Diavik mine ceased production on March 24 after 23 years and over 150 million carats. New Diavik production has ended, making remaining Diavik-origin goods a finite inventory. Provenance-branded programs built on Diavik goods may now need a transition plan.

3. PRODUCERS SPLIT: PETRA STRENGTHENS, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE STRUGGLES

The bottom line: The market is rewarding specialization and putting pressure on producers dependent on commercial-quality volume.

• Petra Diamonds posted a 64% rise in Q3 sales to $68 million and is marketing a rare 41.82-carat blue diamond while retaining exposure to the polished upside. That strategy gives Petra a higher-margin opportunity if the stone performs well.
• Mountain Province closed 2025 with sales down 42% to $112 million and losses widening 246% to $200 million. Mid-tier miner distress appears to be accelerating, which may increase the likelihood of further supply consolidation.

The divergence is instructive: producers with access to exceptional goods are thriving. Those dependent on commercial-quality volume are under significant pressure.

4. GOLD LEADS, DIAMONDS FOLLOW: THE RETAIL RECALIBRATION

The bottom line: If your APAC retail strategy still leads with diamonds, gold-led competitors may already be better aligned with current consumer demand.

Chow Sang Sang posted 6% revenue growth to $2.9 billion and a 113% profit increase to $219 million in 2025, driven largely by gold pricing strength. Diamond allocation within Greater China retail appears to be under active review.

Meanwhile, fancy-shaped diamonds are building a clear premium position: elongated cushions trade at a 20–25% premium over square cuts in the 2-carat-plus segment. Marquises lead pricing; princess cuts remain weak. The message for cutting floors is clear: production planning should reflect where liquidity is moving, especially toward elongated outlines.

GLOBAL EXPO WATCH:

JCK Las Vegas 2026 (June 2–5, Venetian Expo) remains one of the quarter's most important industry events. With De Beers' sightholder restructuring now confirmed and Diavik's closure reshaping Canadian supply, sourcing conversations at JCK are likely to carry unusual urgency. Meetings booked early may matter more than casual booth visits once the show opens.

WEEK AHEAD:

The structural contraction is not just a sign of stress. It is also forcing the market to reset around stronger operators, tighter supply, and more precise planning. Fewer mines, fewer authorized buyers, and sharper retail segmentation all point in the same direction: margin is moving toward companies that plan with precision. Plan accordingly.