Supply Contracts. Demand Shifts. The Diamond Map Is Being Redrawn.

The week delivered a clear message: the global diamond pipeline is narrowing at both ends — fewer mines producing, fewer hands authorized to buy, and a midstream caught recalibrating between gold momentum and polished uncertainty. For decision-makers, this is not a cyclical pause. It is a structural repositioning.

THE PULSE:

1. INDIA'S EXPORT COLLAPSE SIGNALS A MIDSTREAM RESET

The bottom line: If your supply chain runs through Surat, your Q2 delivery schedule just became a question mark.

India's March polished exports plunged 69% year-over-year to just $166M after returns, while rough imports fell 45% to $720M — the sharpest contraction in recent memory. This is not seasonal softness; it is a deliberate pullback by the world's primary cutting hub.

• Factory utilization in Surat is approaching multi-year lows • Liquidity conditions for midstream operators remain under pressure • Polished supply agreements for Q2 should be reassessed immediately

The paradox: Indian domestic demand tells a different story. Titan reported 46% YoY jewelry sales growth in Q4, driven by gold and studded categories. The Indian consumer is buying — just not through the export channel.

2. DE BEERS RESHAPES THE ROUGH MARKET — PERMANENTLY

The bottom line: If you are one of the ~25 sightholders being cut, your sourcing model needs a new architecture by year-end.

De Beers is reducing its authorized sightholder roster from approximately 70 to 45–50 buyers — a one-third contraction. This concentrates rough allocation among fewer, larger players and raises the barrier to entry for everyone else.

• Remaining sightholders gain leverage; displaced buyers must pivot to secondary tenders, Alrosa channels, or artisanal supply • The move reinforces De Beers' shift toward margin over volume • Expect secondary-market rough premiums to widen

Simultaneously, Rio Tinto's Diavik mine ceased production on March 24 after 23 years and over 150 million carats. Canadian-origin rough is now a finite, diminishing inventory. Provenance-branded programs built on Diavik goods face an expiration date.

3. PRODUCERS SPLIT: PETRA SURGES, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE SINKS

The bottom line: The market is rewarding specialization and punishing scale-dependent mediocrity.

• Petra Diamonds posted a 64% rise in Q3 sales to $68M and is marketing a rare 41.82-carat blue diamond, retaining an interest in the polished upside — a smart, high-margin play. • Mountain Province closed 2025 with sales down 42% to $112M and losses widening 246% to $200M. Mid-tier miner distress is accelerating, making further supply consolidation likely.

The divergence is instructive: producers with access to exceptional goods are thriving. Those dependent on commercial-quality volume are bleeding.

4. GOLD LEADS, DIAMONDS FOLLOW — THE RETAIL RECALIBRATION

The bottom line: If your APAC retail strategy still leads with diamonds, your competitors are already outselling you with gold.

Chow Sang Sang posted 6% revenue growth to $2.9B and a 113% profit surge to $219M in 2025 — driven almost entirely by gold pricing strength. Diamond allocation within Greater China retail is under active review.

Meanwhile, fancy-shaped diamonds are carving out their own premium lane: elongated cushions trade at a 20–25% premium over square cuts in the 2-carat-plus segment. Marquises lead pricing; princess cuts remain weak. The message to cutting floors: update your planning software — elongated outlines are where the liquidity is.

GLOBAL EXPO WATCH:

JCK Las Vegas 2026 (June 2–5, Venetian Expo) remains the quarter's must-attend event. With De Beers' sightholder restructuring now confirmed and Diavik's closure reshaping Canadian supply, expect sourcing conversations at JCK to carry unusual urgency. Meetings booked in April will be worth more than booths visited in June.

WEEK AHEAD:

The structural contraction is not a crisis — it is a clearing mechanism. Fewer mines, fewer authorized buyers, and sharper retail segmentation all point in the same direction: the margin is migrating toward those who plan with precision. Position accordingly.