Rapaport Market Comment Flags Mixed RAPI and Resilient US Retail Ahead of Summer Slowdown

Executive Summary

Rapaport's May 7 market commentary describes a divided polished market: prices improved for smaller goods while 1ct rounds slipped. RAPI moved +2.6% for 0.30ct, +1.3% for 0.50ct, and -1.4% for 1ct in April. Trading sentiment cooled as the industry entered the slower summer period, with manufacturers buying rough cautiously and Indian polishing volumes set to dip during the summer vacation period. US retail demand remained the standout positive: solid orders for 2ct+ F-I, VS-SI rounds and long fancies, with 7ct+ D-IF stones in particularly tight supply ahead of the GemGenève show. Low-color goods saw demand as some consumers looked for diamonds with a more visibly natural appearance, and elongated cushions, ovals, and marquises continue to outperform rounds at 2ct and above. Brilliant Earth disclosed Q1 sales up 6% year over year to $100 million. Against this backdrop, Canadian producers remained pressured: Ekati owner Burgundy filed for CCAA protection just days earlier. The comment points to a market where larger-goods recovery still depends heavily on continued supply discipline.

Industry Impact

The split in polished pricing, with smaller goods firming and 1ct goods softening, has direct margin implications for manufacturers committed to mid-tier production. Retailers in the US benefit from continued consumer appetite for larger natural stones but must navigate tighter availability in D-IF 7ct+. Cutters and tenders should plan for thinner trading liquidity through July–August. Producers that do not maintain supply discipline may prolong the current market weakness; those holding back rough are reinforcing the modest recovery in 2ct+ segments.

Next Steps

1. Reprice 1ct round inventory to reflect the April -1.4% RAPI move; widen the ask-bid spread cautiously.
2. Build 2ct+ F-I VS-SI long-fancy inventory ahead of US holiday memo demand.
3. Tighten rough buying discipline through summer; defer non-essential sight take-up.
4. Engage US retail partners on D-IF 7ct+ pre-orders to lock in tight-supply premiums.
5. Monitor Indian polishing throughput weekly as vacation absorption begins.