Diamond Market Stabilizes Ahead of De Beers April Sight; Large Stones Lead Recovery

Executive Summary

The global polished diamond market entered the final week of April 2026 in a cautious but broadly stable condition. Sentiment has improved at the upper end of the market following months of price decline across most categories. Geopolitical easing in the Middle East, following a US-Iran ceasefire, has allowed Israel and regional trade hubs to partially reopen for business, removing a near-term headwind. Rapaport's April 23 weekly comment reports that 7-9.99 carat rounds and 10+ carat D-flawless stones are performing well. Round diamonds in the 0.30-0.89 carat range have stabilized since April 1. Long fancy cuts—ovals, marquises, and emeralds—command premiums over rounds in the 2-carat-and-above range, with long cushions trading 20-25% above square equivalents. US demand is positive at the high end ahead of Mother's Day on May 10. Angola disclosed 2025 rough production of 15.2 million carats, an 8% year-on-year increase. Buying activity in India is muted as manufacturers defer polished purchases ahead of the De Beers sight (April 27-30) and prepare for May factory closures. Hong Kong buyers are shifting toward colored gemstones and gold, with natural diamonds holding ground mainly in the 3-5 carat premium segment. The next four to six weeks will test whether pre-Mother's Day demand in the US can sustain price stabilization across mid-range goods.

Industry Impact

The market's bifurcation continues: large, high-quality naturals are firming while mid-range and small goods remain under structural pressure from lab-grown competition. Rough buyers should note that the April 27-30 De Beers sight—shortened this year to four days—arrives during a window of Indian factory closures and geopolitical uncertainty. Retailers targeting Mother's Day have a narrow window of approximately two weeks to finalize replenishment. Fancy shape premiums (long cushions +20-25%) present a pricing opportunity for dealers with scarce inventory of well-cut marquises and radiants.

Next Steps

1. Monitor De Beers April sight outcomes (April 27-30) for pricing signals—any adjustments will set the tone for rough buying through June.
2. Finalize Mother's Day inventory by May 1 as Indian factories begin summer closures, tightening polished supply.
3. Review fancy shape inventory: long cushions, marquises, and ovals above 2 carats trade at premiums; evaluate selling or holding based on replacement cost.
4. Track Angola 2025 production data (15.2M carats, +8% YoY) against De Beers and Alrosa output for a full rough supply picture.
5. Monitor Hong Kong's shift toward colored stones and gold—acceleration could increase mid-tier polished price pressure.