India Polished Exports Plunge 69% in March
March polished exports from India dropped 69% YoY to $166M after returns; rough imports fell 45% to $720M.
Read original on RapaportExecutive Summary
India's polished diamond export figures for March 2026 reveal a severe contraction across the entire pipeline. Total polished exports declined 69% year-over-year to $166 million after accounting for returns — a figure that strips out the cosmetic inflation of gross shipments and reflects actual net trade flow. Rough diamond imports, the leading indicator of future cutting and polishing activity, fell 45% year-over-year to $720 million, confirming that Surat's manufacturing base is operating well below capacity. The data points to a compounding set of pressures: weakening end-consumer demand in the United States and China, inventory overhang at the retail and wholesale level, reduced access to trade finance as Indian banks tighten credit conditions for the gems and jewellery sector, and ongoing competition from lab-grown diamonds which continues to erode the commercial polished segment. The timing — March typically benefits from pre-summer stocking — makes the decline especially significant. A seasonally strong month has instead confirmed structural contraction. The numbers also reflect the aftermath of geopolitical disruption in February and March, when US-Israel-Iran tensions effectively froze two of India's key trading counterparts — Israel and Dubai — reducing both buyers and rough supply channels simultaneously. The Bank of India's GJEPC data confirms these are not one-time distortions but part of a multi-month trend, with polished exports having declined in five of the past six months on a year-over-year basis.
Industry Impact
Indicates severe midstream retrenchment in the world's primary cutting hub; expect extended factory slowdowns in Surat.
Next Steps
Reassess Q2 polished supply agreements; monitor Indian liquidity and factory utilization weekly.