A revocable reprieve: the up-to-100% Russia-linked US tariff is suspended two days before it would reach Indian goods

Accountability first: the US tariff step we flagged for around 18 October has not landed on Indian goods, because Washington suspended it two days before the deadline.

💎 Polished — The price board has not moved since September's RAPI, a print in which every size rose, led by the smallest goods, with the 0.50ct index up 2.5% for the month against 0.3% at one carat. No new index reading, sight result or tender has landed to shift it, and the next firm price point is the October RAPI in early November, which will show whether that small-stone lead held or faded.

🌍 Demand & macro — Trump signed an executive order on 16 October that sets the 100% duty from the Graham sanctions act on the five largest buyers of Russian energy for fresh purchases from today, then suspends it through a presidential waiver that carries no fixed expiry and can be withdrawn, and the relief is not specific to India (Outlook India and The Tribune, 17 October). Our assessment is that this is a reprieve the administration can pull rather than a settled exemption, so the threat is paused, not closed. For the Indian midstream the practical result is that goods keep moving to the United States at the existing duty for now, which makes the rush to ship ahead of the deadline a sensible hedge rather than a wasted cost. The rupee holds its turn at about 94.96 to the dollar, close to 1.83% firmer on the week, which trims what exporters collect in rupees on dollar sales while making imported rough a little cheaper to buy locally.

📅 On the radar — The policy point to watch is not a date but a decision, namely any move to withdraw the waiver, since it has no set end. On the trade calendar, JA New York opens on 25 October and the Dubai Diamond Conference runs on 26 and 27 October, the De Beers October sight (Sight 9) sits on 26 to 30 October, and the October RAPI in early November gives the first firm price figure since the September print.