Flat into the Print: Small Stones Hold While 1 ct Waits for Confirmation

Nothing in the monthly RAPI has moved since the last brief: 0.50 ct goods are still up 4.10% on the month and the 1 ct grade only 0.57%, so firmness remains concentrated in the smallest stones and has not reached one-carat goods, the same split the past week’s briefs have flagged. It remains unresolved against two readings we have kept on the record: IDEX’s September report calling the month broadly under pressure, and De Beers’ chief executive saying natural prices are starting to recover. Both are claims about September that this month’s spread does not yet confirm, and D-Loupe is not repeating a broadening-recovery line until the data supports it.

The September RAPI, due around Oct 1 and now only days away, should clarify all three readings at once. A clearly positive 1 ct print would support the recovery De Beers describes and broaden the small-stone story, while strength below 0.50 ct alone as 1 ct fades would keep the recovery narrow and require both broader readings to be treated cautiously. Rough is quiet: De Beers’ realized price is a quarterly benchmark at $110/ct, down 37% year over year, with no sight or tender result at the major producers since the last brief. On the calendar, Doha’s DJWE opens Sep 28 and Istanbul’s IJS opens Sep 30.