A Quiet Session — Small-Stone Strength Holds as De Beers Calls a Recovery

The monthly RAPI still splits the market, and nothing in it has changed since the last brief. The 0.50 ct grade is up 4.10% on the month while the 1 ct grade is only 0.57% higher, so firmness remains concentrated in the smallest stones and has not yet reached one-carat goods. What is new is the counterpoint to that reading: De Beers’ chief executive says natural-diamond prices are beginning to recover, as reported by IDEX. That is producer commentary rather than an independent price reading, and it runs ahead of what the RAPI spread shows and IDEX’s own September report, which describes the month as broadly under pressure. Our view is unchanged: D-Loupe will not repeat a broadening-recovery line until the wider data supports it.

September’s RAPI, due around Oct 1 and now about a week away, should help settle the question directly. A clearly positive 1 ct print would support the recovery the producer is describing, while continued strength below 0.50 ct with softer 1 ct goods would reinforce the small-stone story and require producer optimism to be read cautiously. Rough is quiet, with De Beers’ realized price still a quarterly benchmark at $110/ct, down 37% year over year, and no major sight or tender result since the last brief. On the show calendar, MadridJoya runs in Madrid through Sep 27, with Doha’s DJWE opening Sep 28.