Demand rotates into smaller stones as polished firms

De Beers' Q2 realized price sits at $110/ct, still down 37% year-on-year, so the rough correction remains the market's backdrop rather than a fresh move. With no new tender or index print today, treat the softness as a standing picture, not a reason to act.

RAPI firmed this month, with the 1ct index up +0.57% and the 0.50ct up +4.10% — demand is concentrating in smaller, gift-able stones. The half-carat's outperformance is the more actionable read for anyone stocking into the season.

The dollar held near flat against the rupee (USD/INR 95.88, +0.33% on the week) and shekel (3.04, -0.25%) but firmed +1.15% versus the euro, while gold cooled -6.07% over the month to about $4,396/oz. Stable rupee costs and a softer gold bid ease two input pressures, even as India's polished exports stay -4.93% YoY in August.

A Signet executive is pointing to firming natural-diamond demand into the holidays, echoing the half-carat RAPI move. If it holds, expect the pull to concentrate in specific size and quality bands rather than lift the market broadly — a prompt to check your own sell-through, not to restock across the board.

The nearest date is the IJS Istanbul Jewelry Show (60th edition), Sept 30–Oct 3 at the Istanbul Expo Center — the first Q4 gathering to test whether the holiday-demand talk shows up in actual orders.