Recovery Broadens into Smaller Stones as U.S. Holiday Demand Firms

De Beers still marks rough at $110/ct, down 37% year on year through Q2, and has paused the Venetia mine for two years. Miners are defending the floor through supply cuts rather than price recovery, which is helping polished margins heal from the supply side.

RAPI is up 3.97% for 0.50 ct goods this month against 0.45% for 1 ct goods, so the rebound is real but concentrated in accessible sizes. These are the goods moving most readily, not the trophy stones.

Gold eased 3.2% over the month to $4,425/oz while the dollar firmed (USD/EUR +1.15% on the week). Softer bullion trims input pressure, and USD/INR at 95.88 keeps Indian cutting costs competitive against a still-weak export book, with India’s polished exports down 4.93% YoY in August.

Signet’s Joan Hilson points to firming natural-diamond demand into the holidays, and Macy’s lifted its full-year outlook citing fine-jewelry strength. These are two U.S. mid-market signals that the pull is landing at the accessible end, exactly where RAPI is moving.

IJS Istanbul, the 60th edition, opens Sep 30 and runs through Oct 3, the first major show of the fall calendar before the Dubai cluster and JA New York in late October.