Polished Firms at the Small End While Rough Remains Near Lows

De Beers' realized price sits at $110/ct, still down 37% year over year in Q2. Rough remains near multi-year lows, with no broad producer-price recovery yet reaching the midstream.

RAPI rose at both ends this month, but the small end led: 0.50 ct goods gained 3.97% versus 0.45% for 1 ct goods. Demand is concentrating in commercial, lower-carat goods, where cutting-center appetite and retail restocking are aligned.

The dollar firmed this week (USD/INR +1.13% to 95.56, USD/ILS +1.41%) while gold eased 1.66% over the month but held above $4,340/oz. A stronger dollar squeezes Indian buying power just as high bullion prices push jewelry makers toward higher stone content, a mixed backdrop that favors well-priced polished over plain gold.

India's August gem and jewellery exports edged higher even as natural polished value softened, down 4.93% YoY, according to GJEPC data. The midstream is rotating value into studded gold and lab-grown lines rather than growing polished volume. Manufacturing appetite is turning selective and mix-driven, not volume-driven.

Jewellery & Gem WORLD Hong Kong is underway at AsiaWorld-Expo through Sep 18, with the HKCEC leg opening tomorrow and running through Sep 20. It offers the season's first major read on Asian Q4 demand and holiday restocking.