Smaller Polished Goods Lead Ahead of Hong Kong Week

De Beers' realized price remains at $110/ct, still down 37% year over year in Q2, but the producer signal is beginning to improve: Gem Diamonds returned to a first-half profit as rough prices firmed. Read this as a floor holding, not a fresh leg down.

RAPI rose across the board this month, with the small end leading: 0.50 ct goods gained 2.52% versus 0.63% for 1 ct goods. Demand is rotating down the size curve into the goods that compete most directly with lab-grown diamonds.

The dollar eased this past week, down 0.64% against the euro and 0.31% against the shekel, while the rupee held near ₹95.1. That gives some relief to non-dollar buyers, though Indian manufacturers see less benefit if the rupee is mostly stable. Gold at $4,452/oz, up 2.06% on the month, keeps luxury metals well bid but also raises the margin bar for jewelry into year-end.

Bain sees stronger U.S. holiday spending overall but softer jewelry demand, with younger buyers the relative bright spot. Year-end sell-through sets Q1 restocking, so a weak jewelry season would tighten wholesale demand into early 2027. Weight inventory toward the price points younger buyers actually pursue.

Jewellery & Gem WORLD Hong Kong opens Sep 14 at AsiaWorld-Expo, then continues at HKCEC from Sep 16–20. It is the season's key Asian demand read; the Bangkok Gems & Jewelry Fair runs through Sep 12.